Archive for 2008年10月

杭州白领战楼市危机(转)

10月 21, 2008

读完杭州市挽救楼市的24条“新政”,我感动得几乎落下热泪:“天不亡我啊!”接下去的事情,自然是赶紧找中介,把去年买的那套房子给卖了。

去年那套房子,买的时候是奔着自住去的,买完之后,楼市呼啦啦涨了一截,我没想过卖。后来股市先瘟,慢慢传导到楼市,尽管没套住我,也已经没啥利润可言。这时候,我同样没想过卖,原因很简单,我买来是为了住的呀,又不是拿来炒的,涨跌管我啥事。所以,之前看到开发商降价,消费者冲击售楼部要求赔偿的新闻,我只是想:这样也可以?真的会赔钱吗?如果楼市能赔,那股市能赔吗?但是,现在,当政府出来救市后,我坐不住了,决定挂牌了。

政府救市的大背景下,是世界各国的“经济危机”喊声一片。1997年的时候,也闹过经济危机,那时候我这个中国人完全是当新闻看的,现在心态就不同了,每天翻着电视频道和报纸,心里只在想一个问题,会影响到中国吗,会影响到我吗?观摩完世界形势再来审视自己买的这套房子,完全成了个烫手山芋。如果没有危机这码事,那么就算房价再怎么起起落落,我只要能保证自己的收入不变,以前供得起这套楼,以后依然供得起。但是现在,天啊,谁敢担保明年我的工资袋里能和今年一样丰满呢?政府“防止股市大起大落”,结果上证指数满6000送4200,政府现在救楼市了,我还是赶紧脚底抹油的好,这世道,现金为王。

经济危机尽管离中国还有距离,但如我这般的小白领们,已经惶惶不可终日地贮藏起了过冬的大白菜。本周值得记入本办公室金融记事簿的,除了我的卖楼举动,还有小宝的送包行动。小宝是典型的杭州女人,和老公各有一份比上不足比下有余的工作,拜去年股市的福,手头多了些可支配财产,正在思量是否该跨入时尚的门槛,完成从淘宝到连卡佛的转变。结果,美国道指一破万,小宝追逐奢侈品的念头灭得比秋天的蚊子还快。但是,就在这时候,有个朋友,送了她一只Burberry 的包!经过前期的时尚扫盲,小宝已经很清楚一只新款的Burberry包价值几何。经过若干天痛苦的挣扎,当看到冰岛股市史无前例二五折大促销的举动后,小宝毅然将此包转送他人。

送完包后,小宝如祥林嫂一般在MSN上,向每一个过问此事的朋友解释为什么要这样做。因为小宝之前目击了一起真实案例,小宝称之为“一只钱包引发的血案。”之前与小宝私交甚好的某同仁,去年股市职场双得意,遂蒙红颜垂青,赠送LV钱包一只。该同仁爱抚再三,觉得原来那只公文包实在不衬佳人心意,于是去买了一只Hermes的公文包来配。买了Hermes公文包后,又觉得从富康钻出来更不般配,于是一咬牙一跺脚,去买了辆奥迪A4。

小宝在MSN上,心惊肉跳地说:“如果我为了一只Burberry的包而去采取同样的配置,你说,在这样的宏观环境下,任何的财务扩张行动,是否都形同自杀?!”

Eddy Groves说,成功与财富无关

10月 15, 2008

Eddy Groves, the founder and former chief executive of embattled childcare group ABC Learning, has made his first public appearance since leaving the company, speaking at an Ipswich Chamber of Commerce lunch in Queensland yesterday.

In a wide-ranging speech, Groves has blamed short-sellers and rumour-mongers for causing the sharp drop in ABC’s share price in February, which forced Eddy and his wife LeNeve to sell their shareholdings to meet a market call.

“I saw rumours that were rife about the most ridiculous things I’ve ever heard,” Groves told the lunch. “As that starts to happen, the media starts to build up, the share price starts to fall, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Groves also admitted the company was not well enough prepared for its expansion into the US, but said the then soaring Australian dollar and collapse in global credit markets took the company by surprise.

But he said the decision to go into the US was partly driven by investors desperate for the company to keep growing.

“There is an enormous amount of pressure that the public market can put on a company to continue to grow. Even though you tell yourself not to fall into that trap, it’s very difficult not to, because the share price continues to grow, the returns were continuing to grow, and people want you to maintain that pace."

When it was clear that ABC was in trouble, fear set in.

“That’s a scary place to be, when you feel like you are holding back a dam that is about to break – and the reason why it is about to break is not because of the foundations of the dam but because there is so much water coming,” he said.

“No matter how strong the foundations are, it’s going to knock it over. So, of course, during those times there were a lot of dark moments, a lot of lost sleep.”

Groves, whose personal fortune was valued at $350 million when ABC’s shares were at their peak in early 2007, says the loss of his fortune has taught him about the real value of long-term success.

"The one thing I have learnt over the last 12 months is crystallised very well in my mind, that certainly success is not driven by personal wealth.

"As quick as it can come, it can go," he said.

Groves also admitted he did not fit the normal mould of a CEO, but he urged budding entrepreneurs not to be scared off by his experiences.

The organisers of the lunch presented Groves with a book called Fat, Forty and Fired.

According to reports, Groves denied he was fat.

 
 

俺身边的经济危机

10月 13, 2008
上周五,把正在建的房子的第4次付款的发票fax到Queensland progress payment center,随后打电话给贷款的代理,想让她督促payment center不要延误付款,结果听到的却是语音留言,说她已经不在commonwealth bank工作,请她的客户联系xxx。由于银行借贷迅速减少,贷款代理已经纷纷下岗。
 
上周六查了一下养老金帐户,将近8千刀莫名其妙的没了。都说钱是身外之物,为何俺的心如刀割?难道俺是一个拜金的俗人?俺的头脑还算清醒,想了一会儿想明白了,结论是通过自己或者亲人诚实地付出体力脑力换来的钱并非身外之物,所有其他的钱都是身外之物。唯一可以安慰自己的是,俺不是最惨的一个。俺老婆的同事的朋友快退休了,养老金已经损失了8万刀(一个月前),现在应该有10万了吧。昨天又得知,俺的一个朋友的朋友的老公的养老金亏损了50%。
 
今天上午,打电话给一个地产中介朋友,想请他帮忙在他们的数据库里查一下朋友正想买的房子上一次交易的价格和时间。让俺吃惊的是,他说已经不干地产中介了,生意不好,不足以谋生,等市场好了再回去。俺问他现在干什么。他怪不好意思地说,在超市打打工。
 
同事们现在工作表现都变好了,因为工作不好找,唯一能做的就是好好干活,别被炒了。

魔杰座的杰伦

10月 10, 2008
杰伦终于又出新专辑了。这是第7张了,居然还没让俺倒胃口,这在历史上还没有过。
俺甚至怀疑俺的胃口现在是不是变得太好了,什么样的货色都能听得进去。前两天刚好看了一个周杰伦的访谈节目,基本扫除了俺的自我怀疑。访谈中提到了罗大佑、黄舒骏、陶喆这些上一辈人(陶喆也许不能算)都对杰伦评价很高,甚至说如果没有周杰伦,不知道台湾的流行音乐现在会是什么样子。这三个人俺自己很喜欢,大多数人大概也是认可的吧。 下面是《稻香》和《兰亭序》
 
 

美国的房子有多便宜

10月 2, 2008
前不久,一个美国的哥儿们说要买房子了,发来链接,打开一看,哇,便宜得令人发指。巨大一个4房两卫两车库、两层楼、带泳池的小城堡,只卖38万美金不到,据说这还算贵的了,因为学区好。
今天看到一个更绝的,一个30岁的芝加哥妇女在ebay上以1块7毛5分美金的最高价拍得一个房子。房子是破了些,但1快7毛5还不够买顿麦当劳啊。起拍价5分,有3个竞拍者,总共8次竞拍,最后这位妇女以2毛5的优势胜出第二位竞拍者。据说卖家也是从ebay上买来的。
当然事情没有这么简单,这位妇女还要花大约850刀的税和清理费用。